Friday, June 3, 2011

Solving the Kona Qualifying Mystery

So, 4 weeks to go. And after this weekend a big sigh of relief will be certain, once I’ve licked this last big Saturday brick workout (120 mi bike/6 mi run) and my final long run of 20 miles on Sunday.

I wanted to spend a moment to explain how this Ironman World Championships qualifying thing is supposed to work. The WTC, which is the governing body of Ironman brand races, doesn’t make it easy to make sense of the whole thing. To qualify for the World Championship event in Kona, Hawaii in October you have to do one of their qualifying events – which there are over 25 Ironman events in the world (all of which are qualifiers), and there are a handful of Half Ironman events (70.3’s, named after the distance covered in the event) that have slots through grandfather rules of being under the WTC umbrella for so long. Each of these events has a certain number of qualifying slots allocated to them.

IM CDA, in particular, has 65 slots. These slots are awarded to the top pro and age group finishers. Final slot allocation is not determined until race day, and that’s based on the number of official starters and the number of official starters in each age group. So, if 10% of the starters are in the male 40-44 age group, they get 10% of those 65 slots. If nobody shows up in an age group, those slots go to the biggest groups in the same gender.

If you qualify, you have to accept your slot the next morning, which includes paying the $700ish fee for race entry right there and then. If someone qualifies and doesn’t accept their slot (maybe they’ve been before and don’t feel the need to go again, maybe they don’t want to spend the money, whatever) then that slot rolls down until it’s accepted. Typically, that doesn’t happen a whole lot and it doesn’t roll down very far if it does so it’s best not to count on this.

So, here’s how this thing is gonna have to go down for the Richter kid as best I can figure. I’m thinking there should be 8 slots in my 40-44 age group (I’m 39, but your race age is what you will be in December so that puts me at the age of 40), which is about the max – typically male 35-39 and 40-44 are the biggest age groups. More slots, but more competition for them. Again, the number of slots is a mystery until you’re at the race. Last year at IM CDA there were 377 40-44 year old males. The winner of that age group finished in 9:37:11. Geesh! I can’t do that. So, realistically, we’re not going with the hopes of topping the age group. The guy that came in 8th place finished in 10:03:26. 10th place went in 10:06:39.

Assuming all things are equal this year – like weather, for example – this is indicating I need to nail a 10 hour race to feel like I have a good shot at taking home a Kona slot. That is in no way a cakewalk for this cat. I’ve done an 11:24:38 at IM CDA in 2008, and in 2009 I went 10:40:37 at IM Louisville. Granted, I was learning the ropes so to speak, and was not putting any pressure on myself to nab a slot at those events. This time it’s all or nothing.

A 10 hour IM at CDA for me this year might look something like a 1:07 swim (2.4 miles), a 4 minute T1 transition, a 5:13 bike (112 miles), a 2 minute T2 transition, and a 3:34 run (26.2 miles). All of those numbers are guesses, somewhere between realistic goals and what I might call “best case scenarios.” If I’ve misjudged the bike course and am remembering it as being easier than it actually is, or vice versa, the numbers could change dramatically.

So, I really don’t know how this is going to go down, but I’m in the best Ironman shape of my life and believe that the chance of earning a slot is real. Or, I could flop and “just finish.” But back in 2008 when I first attempted this distance at this very same place, “just finishing” was actually a very satisfying goal. We’ll have to see if I can up the ante this time around……

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